Miles Gibson

Miles Gibson

Head of UK Research

Key Highlights

Economic Outlook

We anticipate an improved global economic outlook with inflation a more significant risk than previously.
Growth in the Eurozone will provide support to the UK, but be rather weak and eroded by inflation.
UK GDP growth expected to slow to 1.4% driven mainly by Brexit-related uncertainty, inflation and a tightening labour market.

Political Outlook

The Brexit process means an uncertain 2017 with volatility in markets expected, even if the underlying economy is performing well.
Wider EU politics will also seem volatile, but unlikely to look that different by the end of 2017.
Priority will be given to migration control in Brexit negotiations, which suggests market access will suffer.

Investment and Real Estate Finance

2016 UK investment volumes expected to be 30% down on a very strong 2015; with 2017 slightly weaker.
Demand for UK property nevertheless remains strong.
Investors will aim to de-risk, seeking out secure Long Income and prime assets.
Debt availability will remain good, except for development finance where additional scrutiny is very likely.
Non-traditional sectors with different drivers will do well.

 

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